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Trade talks to dominate

Published October 8, 2019

By Rhys Miles

After a quiet start to the week following a public holiday locally yesterday for the bulk of the country, there is potential for more volatility with the resumption of US/China trade talks this week. Headlines yesterday that China had narrowed considerably their list of parameters that they will be prepared to discuss followed by White House comments that they are not considering banning Chinese companies from listing on the US stock exchanges has already contributed to a contrary tone. Most market commentators don’t anticipate a breakthrough because of the severe differences in the positions of the two countries over intellectual property protection, forced technology transfer, and industrial policy.

A data-poor week ahead of us with the NAB Business Confidence survey released today likely to have the AUD consolidate in the same range of the last three months against the USD. On all of the major cross rates, there is very little change with Brexit and European politics not evolving to any great extent worthy enough of moving their currencies out of recent ranges. In thin market conditions, the AUD appeared well supported around 0.6770 but the sell-off was quick late in the afternoon. A higher oil and commodity prices in general should at least maintain the 0.6700 plus level.

Equities here and abroad have enjoyed a rebound after last week’s falls with another 0.40% rally expected on the ASX today, more hopeful of positive trade talks than anything fundamental.