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S&P500 All time high drives risk sentiment

Published November 4, 2019

By Rowan Murphy

The risk sentiment rallied on Friday as the US stock market hit all-time highs, this latest rally is attributable, on large, to better than expected US economic data, as well some relatively positive trade-war headlines. Local focus today will be on retail sales data to be released at 11:30, this will give a good indication of how the government’s ‘cash back’ is flowing through the economy.

Strong US jobs data, and a sprinkling of trade-war optimism can be thanked for the move Friday night. A couple of high impacting US economic data releases, with US Non-Farm Payrolls and US ISM Manufacturing PMI data the chief bell weathers. The latter disappointed, missing expectations, though printing stronger than last month. The US jobs numbers on the other hand surprised to the upside. 128,000 jobs were added to the US economy in September, well above the 90,000 estimated leading into the release. Indeed, the rate of jobs growth in the US is slowing however it’s not so severe yet to incite fears of a looming US recession, yet.

Post Retail Sales today traders will be watching the Melbourne Cup tomorrow, sorry I mean the RBA meeting minutes, given the broader market has pared back the expectations of a cut to a mere 5% possibility.

Note that the AUD/USD is sitting at/below levels of ‘high’ resistance at the moment.