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RBA minutes due today

Published February 19, 2019

by Nicholas Cork

A quiet session overnight as the US was closed for Presidents Day holiday, leading to small ranges for most currencies. The AUDUSD traded within a 0.7120/0.7160 range in the absence of fresh news, and some late profit taking of both AUDUSD and AUDcrosses saw the AUD test the lower part of the range in late NY.  Today we see the release of the RBA minutes from the January meeting, and this will be examined closely for any rate movement hints. With the recent apparent ‘signalling’ of the ability to cut or raise rates next, the surprise would be a more hawkish release that does not discuss a rate cut possibility. A similar event happened with the RBNZ statement last week and the NZD shot a cent higher very quickly, so worth keeping an eye on.  

No new news on the US China trade front, but the EU was starting to get vocal with Juncker now saying that if Trump breaks his promise on car tariffs then the EU won’t stick to its promise to buy more soy. Schoolyard stuff in this time of international crisis….  In the UK, 7 opposition party members resigned citing Brexit “betrayal” and anti-Semitism saying Britain’s main opposition party had been “hijacked by the machine politics of the hard left.” The remainder of the opposition are saying that May’s Brexit policy is damaging the economy after Honda announced the closure of their British plant which turns out 100,000 cars per year.  The UK has also entered talks with Japan around a post-Brexit trade deal as they continue their contingency planning, and Trump has entered another slanging match with Saturday Night Live after last weekends’ skit. Locally the Government is reeling today after the major parties were all hacked by a ‘sophisticated player’ apparently using malware that is only owned by a handful of countries .. watch this space ..

AUD to remain rangebound until RBA minutes release

AUDUSD – trading with boundaries  (Reuters)