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Independence Day – US Holiday

Published July 4, 2019

By Rowan Murphy

Expect markets to remain subdued with the US taking a breather for their Independence Day holiday.

Last night saw the Aussie push a little higher on the back of ‘risk on’ sentiment as stock markets around the world continued to touch/push into new all-time highs, this is happening at the same time that global treasury yields fall to some of their lowest levels and economic data prints continue to be weak. Something doesn’t seem right with that picture, but that is what is happening. We also saw commodity prices rally overnight, further underpinning the local unit.

The (US) ADP employment change released last night showed 102,000 workers hired although a solid increase on the last release, it fell short of market expectations of 140,000, casting some doubt on Friday’s all important Non-Farm Payrolls. The US ISM data print was also under markets expectations.

Locally we have Retail Sales at 11.30am AEST, Retail Sales are expected to have increased from -0.1% last month to 0.2% this month, although an increase, it is still nothing inspiring for the broader economy.

0.7050 still holds as the near term resistance level.