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Geopolitical Tensions on the rise

Published June 14, 2019

Author: Nicholas Cork

More of the same overnight as Trade tensions were joined by increasing geopolitical tensions after the US accused Iran of the bombing of the two oil tankers in the Gulf of Iran …  “It is the assessment of the United States government that the Islamic Republic of Iran is responsible for the attacks that occurred in the Gulf of Oman today,” U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told reporters … This led to a 4% spike in oil prices as Tehran vehemently denied any involvement, and along with an escalation of the Hong Kong protests it has given the market an air of risk-off again as we head into the weekend. Trumps advisor Kudlow acknowledged there is still no formal plans for a meeting with the Chinese at this month’s G20, and whilst answering questions on solving the trade dispute at an economic forum he said “You know how you get from here to there, Fred? You kick some butt. You kick some butt, in my best economic analytical quantitative regression analysis.” Am not sure how the Chinese will respond to that.

AUD drifted lower over the last 24 hours, breaking below 0.6920 after the unemployment release, and spending the rest of the time between 0.6900 and 0.6920.  The headline number of 5.2% was 0.1% above the market expectations, hence the small sell-off post data release. A break below 0.6900 will likely see AUDUSD test towards May’s 0.6860 lows. Today the focus will be mainly on the continuing global issues and especially the US accusations against Iran,  however China will be releasing data for Retail Sales and Industrial Production.