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Market Update

EncoreFX’s daily market updates are written by our experienced and professional dealing team.

Brexit deal appears imminent

Published November 14, 2018

by Nicholas Cork

The USD’s new highs seen yesterday were short lived as better news permeated though the market. The AUD was hovering above 0.7150 before the South China Post reported that the Chinese VP is heading to the US pre G20 summit to discuss trade, which saw AUD quickly back to 72 cents in our mid-afternoon. Talk of possible intervention by Chinese state-backed banks selling USD to support the Yuan also led to wider selling of USD across the region late yesterday, and the Chinese Premier vowed in a speech overnight that “we will keep the renmimbi in a reasonable range and basically stable.”

Overnight the big news was that the U.K. and European Union have agreed on a draft Brexit deal. Currently PM May is showing the deal to her cabinet before a meeting tomorrow at 2pm LDN time to rubber stamp the agreement. At the same time the EU cabinet will be doing the same in Brussels. The impact on the GBP was swift as it rose 200 points before easing 100 as the Brexit nay-sayers got some air time. The EURO collapsed quickly to 16 month lows late in our day as chart levels were breached below 1.1300 against the USD. It regained most of that ground overnight as it hung onto the GBP’s coat-tails as we await Italy’s budget submission to the European Commission.

The recent volatility in the GBP and EUR has helped the AUD test 3 month highs at 0.5600 and 0.6400 respectively late yesterday, before both AUDcrosses eased lower over the evening session.

Oil fell $5 overnight bringing losses closer to 30% as Trumps comments on OPEC cuts and persistent rumours of a global glut continue to weigh. The DOW is 120 points lower at present but not on the weak oil price, but on a fall in Apple as their suppliers slash forecasts and Goldmans also lower as the Malaysian Fin Min called for a full refund of fees for their 1MDB state fund. (600 mio USD)